Le Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP) a le plaisir de vous inviter à une conférence hybride qui aura lieu le lundi 26 janvier 2026.

Donnée par la Dre Amy Hurford, professeure agrégée à l’Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador, cette conférence portera sur l’utilisation du taux historique des pandémies pour estimer le taux de létalité des infections humaines par le virus de la grippe aviaire.

Using the historical rate of pandemics to estimate the infection fatality ratio of avian influenza virus infections in humans

Résumé de la présentation (en anglais): Given the recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in animals, it is necessary to communicate the risk to humans and to explain the rationale for preventative measures. The risk of HPAI infection to humans is challenging to estimate because many human avian influenza virus (AIV) infections are undetected as they may be asymptomatic, symptomatic but not tested, and as contact tracing is difficult because human-to-human spread is rare. To overcome this challenge, we derive equations that consider the evolutionary mechanisms that give rise to pandemics and are parameterized to be consistent with past records of pandemics. We estimate that worldwide the mean number of human AIV infections is 6,458 (95% confidence interval: [2,737, 21,265]) in an average year, which corresponds to an estimated infection fatality ratio of 32 deaths per 10,000 human AIV infections. The infection fatality ratio informs individual risk as it describes an average person’s mortality risk given AIV infection. Preventing human AIV infections also reduces the chance of evolutionary adaptation of AIV that could lead to a pandemic. We estimate that preventing 20% of animal-to-human influenza spillovers annually would delay pandemic emergence by an average of 9.4 years. Our results correspond to a worldwide average, and we do not model the epidemiological dynamics of AIV spread in animals or human influenza seasons, which is necessary to inform the spatiotemporal components of risk. Our results help justify the implementation of measures to prevent pandemics because we show that individuals that protect themselves from AIV infections also reduce their risk of infection with a highly pathogenic virus. This is work is led by MSc candidate, Joshua Mack (Memorial University), and is in collaboration with Michael WZ Li (PHAC).

Conférencière 

Dre Amy Hurford est biologiste mathématicienne, avec des nominations conjointes aux départements de biologie, mathématiques et statistiques, ainsi qu’à la Faculté de médecine. Ses travaux portent sur l’application de la modélisation mathématique à la dynamique des populations, à l’écologie et à l’épidémiologie évolutive.

Détails du programme

Date : 26 janvier 2026

Heure : 11h à 12h

Lieu : Locaux 0520 et 0522, FMV, St-Hyacinthe

Accès zoom : umontreal.zoom.us/j/81764947445?pwd=AVaqgJfcL67dl2MnHboqsRSsdYorb9.1